Government 180 Lecture 2

California – Place of Dreams, Reality, sometimes not so much.

A state with incredible history, geography, population – it is impossible to summarize California quickly or succinctly.

California is a state which has always captured the attention of this nation. Sometimes for better (our beaches, entrepreneurial spirit, wilderness, movies, growth, and diversity). And, sometimes for the worse (as in disasters, craziness, growth, diversity).

California has been looked at with awe for the development of many progressive public policy developments and with disdain for others (depending on your point of view). In many actions in Congress there are still feelings of immense jealousy about our state and way of life – The Anywhere but California ABC –Philosophy.

Still today there is a sense that California is the place to be and in spite of declarations in many political speeches and news accounts that people are fleeing California in droves, California population continues to grow – albeit it with the great economic depression we are slowly trying to dig slowly out of.

California for the first time in decades will not have more Congressional members added to our delegation following this year’s census. California does not lose any members as our population has again increased, although slowly according to US Census and CA. Dept. of Finance numbers.

When you think about 36,961,664 people living in California, you begin to realize the immense difficulty the new Governor and the Legislature have in unifying Californians to move politically or on a policy issue in any direction at all!

Between 2000 and 2008, the share of Californians who are Hispanic has climbed from 33 percent to 37 percent of the population. Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders

have grown from 11 percent to 13 percent. By comparison, non-Hispanic white Californians have declined from 47 percent of the population to 41 percent. African Americans have declined from 6 percent to 5 percent of the state population during

this same period.

Nationally, non-Hispanic whites are 65 percent of the population, Hispanics 16 percent, African Americans 13 percent, and Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders 5 percent.

Often overshadowed by the doom-and-gloom of spending cuts proposed in the governor’s January budget plan are demographic estimates of how California will grow over the next five years.
The numbers are important – particularly those of the US Census – because they determine the amount of funds the state receives from the federal government. There’s bad news for California in the initial results of the 2010 census, according to Page 71 of the 178-page summary of Gov. Jerry Brown’s budget.

The census finds 37,253,956 residents of the Golden State as of April 2010.
“While this count is considerably lower than expected, insufficient information is currently available to determine to what extent it reflects an undercount and the degree to which (the state) Department of Finance’s estimates should be adjusted, the spending plan says.

Brown’s Department of Finance estimates there are nearly 38.8 million residents as of mid-2010. That is expected to climb to 39.1 million by July and 39.5 million by the middle of 2012.

During the next five years, the state’s population will grow by an average of 423,000 annually, hitting nearly 41 million in July 2015, the department predicts.

There will be more than 50 million Californians by 2032 although the department cautions that long-range estimate was made prior to the recession and that slower growth in recent years could delay that milestone.

This year, People moving to California from other states or countries – minus those that leave – will account for 29 percent of the growth. The remainder will be births outpacing deaths. Overall the state’s population growth over five years will be 5.5 percent. But, that growth is anything but evenly distributed among age groups.

Propelled by Baby Boomers reaching retirement age, Californians 65 years of age and older will climb more than 17 percent over five years. In contrast preschool age kids will grow by less than 1 percent.

Those Californians considered “working age” – ages 25 to 64 – will climb by 5.5 percent, boosting tax revenue to the state. College age Californians – ages 18 to 24 – and those between the ages of 5 and 17 while both grow roughly by 2.5 percent.

In analyzing 2009 Gross Product numbers, California ranks eighth among the top ten largest economies in the world, just ahead of Brazil and just behind Italy. California’s gross state product, the total value of final goods and services produced in state, was about $1.9 trillion in 2009.  California accounts for 13 percent of the nation’s output.  The next largest state economy—Texas—is about 60 percent the size of California’s.

This economic strength has been a huge draw to growing California’s popularity and national/ international strength.  These huge economic numbers are why, when during the last year several national news publications and broadcasts asked the question if California was dead – and why most experts agree that the economy, the climate urban amenities, natural beauty and diversity in California’s people and economy will allow California to recover from the Great Recession.

At the same time, California was hit hard by the Great Recession. In 2009, state tax revenues plummeted 14 percent from the previous year, compared to a 9 percent drop nationally. At the same time, demands escalated for Medi-Cal and other public assistance programs. As a result, the state faced record budget shortfalls of around $100 billion, or roughly a third of General Fund expenditures, from 2008 through 2010.

Nevertheless, many of California’s budget woes are long standing. The state has faced gaps between revenues and expenditures in nearly every budget cycle since the start of the decade. It contended with huge shortfalls during the recessions of the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s. State budgets are often passed after the start of the new fiscal year.

 

A series of budget-related ballot measures and legislative actions has complicated the state-local fiscal relationship. Voters often express mistrust of their state government and alienation from the budget process. In addition, the state faces many long-term challenges, including large unfunded liabilities for public employee pensions and rising health care costs and debt service obligations. On a more positive note, PPIC’s Statewide Survey suggests that Californians are concerned about the state’s fiscal problems and ready for “major reforms.”

 

 

California is a state of constant change and evolution – in all aspects of life; social, economic and political.

California is a state challenged with great geography (citing my 15 months of driving in just one portion of the State, between Crescent City – Sausalito – Sacramento and the differences between communities and areas), great differences in attitudes and politics. 

On some issues the split in California runs beyond traditional Republican v. Democrat v. Independents v. Decline-to-States parties; splits occur between Northern v. Southern Californians; Coastal v. Central Valley.  Cities v. Suburbs v. Ag areas (water); State v. Local Government.

Then there are issues of race, gender, age, sexual identity/ orientation which cause political and social splintering, which makes the ability of our representatives  much more difficult to fix or try to fix many of these tough issues they face each and every day.

The nexus between population and budget, as well as both of these and politics is simple.

When Californians say the state is collapsing or the state is ungovernable due to a lack of being able to pass an annual budget (the state’s spending and implementing of public policy and services) it boils down to this.

I heard a pollster talk about polling work he had done over a decade and trend lines in voting. He said the clearest thing I have ever heard about the challenge of governing (and funding) the state. 

He said in every statewide poll he had ever done, Californians could be identified as being fiscally conservative and socially moderate.

That means we want everything and we don’t want to pay for anything!