Latinos and Asians populations rise while fewer whites reside in California
Published: Monday, May. 16, 2011 - 12:00 am | Page 1A
California's ethnic mix is shifting, and not only because of the rising numbers of Latinos and Asians. There are actually fewer white people living in the state than there were a decade ago.
The number of non-Hispanic whites in California has fallen by 850,000 since the turn of the century, from 15.8 million in 2000 to 14.95 million in 2010.
The Golden State's struggling economy is driving the trend, demographers say. Whites in general are having fewer children than they did a generation ago, in some cases because they feel they can't afford it. The result: White Californians are dying off faster than they are being born.
The tough economy also has fueled a white exodus. Hundreds of thousands of white people have left the state since the 2000 census. And unlike generations past, fewer whites from other states are moving to California to make their fortunes. The state has experienced a net loss of 700,000 whites to other states – and a net loss of 1.5 million people across all ethnic groups.
During that same period, the Asian and Latino populations soared in California. Bolstered by immigration and higher birthrates, the number of Latinos jumped by 3 million and the number of Asians rose by 1.1 million. The number of blacks held almost steady.
Already a majority-minority state, California is expected to have a Latino majority by 2025.
Outmigration is by far the biggest factor behind California's shrinking white population. Those jumping ship include rich people fleeing the state income tax, baby boomers seeking cheaper places to retire and residents who are poor or lack college degrees seeking jobs and more affordable housing.
Many headed to neighboring states and the mid-South. Texas – with an 8.1 percent unemployment rate, compared with 12 percent in California – is now a primary destination. Texas Gov. Rick Perry has declared his state "open for business" and is actively recruiting Californians – even those without jobs.
"I think Texas would be relatively low on most Californians' paradise index," quipped Texas state demographer Lloyd Potter.
But from a business perspective, he said, Texas seems ideal: "We don't have a state income tax. We provide incentives for businesses to come here. There's not a whole lot of organized labor, and land is reasonably priced compared to California."
Fleeing for cheaper states
About 44 percent of the 80,471 Californians who moved to Texas between 2006 and 2008 – when the recession took hold – are white, Potter said. Meanwhile, only 43,405 Texans, half of them white, moved to the California, Potter said.
The number of non-Hispanic whites in California has fallen by 850,000 since the turn of the century, from 15.8 million in 2000 to 14.95 million in 2010.
The Golden State's struggling economy is driving the trend, demographers say. Whites in general are having fewer children than they did a generation ago, in some cases because they feel they can't afford it. The result: White Californians are dying off faster than they are being born.
The tough economy also has fueled a white exodus. Hundreds of thousands of white people have left the state since the 2000 census. And unlike generations past, fewer whites from other states are moving to California to make their fortunes. The state has experienced a net loss of 700,000 whites to other states – and a net loss of 1.5 million people across all ethnic groups.
During that same period, the Asian and Latino populations soared in California. Bolstered by immigration and higher birthrates, the number of Latinos jumped by 3 million and the number of Asians rose by 1.1 million. The number of blacks held almost steady.
Already a majority-minority state, California is expected to have a Latino majority by 2025.
Outmigration is by far the biggest factor behind California's shrinking white population. Those jumping ship include rich people fleeing the state income tax, baby boomers seeking cheaper places to retire and residents who are poor or lack college degrees seeking jobs and more affordable housing.
Many headed to neighboring states and the mid-South. Texas – with an 8.1 percent unemployment rate, compared with 12 percent in California – is now a primary destination. Texas Gov. Rick Perry has declared his state "open for business" and is actively recruiting Californians – even those without jobs.
"I think Texas would be relatively low on most Californians' paradise index," quipped Texas state demographer Lloyd Potter.
But from a business perspective, he said, Texas seems ideal: "We don't have a state income tax. We provide incentives for businesses to come here. There's not a whole lot of organized labor, and land is reasonably priced compared to California."
Fleeing for cheaper states
Many of the California escapees – 295,000 – left between 2003 and 2005, as housing prices ballooned.
"During the run-up of housing prices, many cashed out or left because they were priced out of the market," said demographer Hans Johnson of the Public Policy Institute of California.
Dan Howle, government affairs director for a pharmaceutical company, is among those who uprooted. He said his decision to relocate from Sacramento to Austin, Texas, last December was all about the economics.
"I still own my house in Arden Arcade, but I haven't been able to sell it," said Howle, adding that the tens of thousands he saves each year in state income tax made the move worth it.
Howle said he regularly meets other wealthy white Californians who are bailing out.
"It's not so much how many white people are leaving, it's a lot of them are very high wage earners," said Howle.
Falling birthrates also have played a role in whites' shrinking numbers. The number of white births declined about 12 percent over the decade. Since 2000, the number of white deaths outstripped births by roughly 100,000.
In general, Johnson said, white families are getting smaller.
"White people are having small families or in some cases not having kids at all, not three to four kids like they did during the baby boom years," he said.
California's economic squeeze left lots of people thinking they couldn't afford another child. And many white women – who outnumber white men in college – are choosing careers over raising children.
"There's a choice between what you can do with your time and what you can do with your kids," said San Diego State University professor John Weeks.
The political fallout
Though non-Hispanic whites still make up 64 percent of registered voters, they are pretty evenly split: 40 percent Republican, 37 percent Democrat and 23 percent nonpartisan.
But Latino Democrats outnumber Latino Republicans 57 percent to 18 percent, while Asian Americans break 45 percent to 25 percent Democrat vs. Republican, DiCamillo said.
So, for example, while Republican Carly Fiorina had a nine-percentage-point lead over Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer among white voters in November's election, it was not enough to overcome Fiorina's 42 percentage point deficit among ethnic voters, DiCamillo said.
"The Republican Party can no longer count on non-Hispanic whites to give them the pluralities they need," DiCamillo said. "The GOP really needs to do outreach to ethnic populations and younger voters in a very strategic way."
While many ethnic voters are conservative on social issues – opposing same-sex marriage, abortion and legalized marijuana – younger ethnic voters "hold views that are more socially tolerant," DiCamillo said. And Latino voters are particularly sensitive to measures designed to curb illegal immigration that could result in racial profiling.
Overall, California has lost 5 percent of its white population since 2000 when it became a majority-minority state.
"What this means is not clear cut," said Howard Winant, director of the UC Center for New Racial Studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
California's changing complexion already has altered the way many in the state see themselves and think about race. A growing number of high school and college students no longer want to identify by race.
Meanwhile, more Californians – including whites – acknowledge they're mixed.
"Racial identity is much more flexible now," Winant said. "In many cases appearance is a poor guide to racial identity."
Without question, some whites have expressed panic and resentment because they feel they're being displaced by people of color, Winant said. But, he said, there's no evidence that whites are being discriminated against as their numbers drop.
"I'd like to think in the long run there are egalitarian trends at work," he said.
The declining number of white Californians is having an effect on state politics, because people of color – including Latinos and Asian Americans – tend to vote Democratic, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll.
About 44 percent of the 80,471 Californians who moved to Texas between 2006 and 2008 – when the recession took hold – are white, Potter said. Meanwhile, only 43,405 Texans, half of them white, moved to the California, Potter said.Though non-Hispanic whites still make up 64 percent of registered voters, they are pretty evenly split: 40 percent Republican, 37 percent Democrat and 23 percent nonpartisan.
But Latino Democrats outnumber Latino Republicans 57 percent to 18 percent, while Asian Americans break 45 percent to 25 percent Democrat vs. Republican, DiCamillo said.
So, for example, while Republican Carly Fiorina had a nine-percentage-point lead over Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer among white voters in November's election, it was not enough to overcome Fiorina's 42 percentage point deficit among ethnic voters, DiCamillo said.
"The Republican Party can no longer count on non-Hispanic whites to give them the pluralities they need," DiCamillo said. "The GOP really needs to do outreach to ethnic populations and younger voters in a very strategic way."
While many ethnic voters are conservative on social issues – opposing same-sex marriage, abortion and legalized marijuana – younger ethnic voters "hold views that are more socially tolerant," DiCamillo said. And Latino voters are particularly sensitive to measures designed to curb illegal immigration that could result in racial profiling.
Overall, California has lost 5 percent of its white population since 2000 when it became a majority-minority state.
"What this means is not clear cut," said Howard Winant, director of the UC Center for New Racial Studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
California's changing complexion already has altered the way many in the state see themselves and think about race. A growing number of high school and college students no longer want to identify by race.
Meanwhile, more Californians – including whites – acknowledge they're mixed.
"Racial identity is much more flexible now," Winant said. "In many cases appearance is a poor guide to racial identity."
Without question, some whites have expressed panic and resentment because they feel they're being displaced by people of color, Winant said. But, he said, there's no evidence that whites are being discriminated against as their numbers drop.
"I'd like to think in the long run there are egalitarian trends at work," he said.
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