California Legislature may see more swing districts under draft political maps
The Sacramento Bee
Published: Saturday, Jun. 11, 2011 - 12:00 am | Page 1A
California's intensely partisan political system could see more swing districts, new faces and the most significant shake-up in decades under draft legislative and congressional maps released Friday by the state's redistricting commission.
Sacramento is one of the regions most targeted for change, with the capital split into three Assembly districts – including one containing incumbent Democrats Roger Dickinson, Mariko Yamada and Richard Pan.
The district boundaries released Friday by the 14-member California Citizens Redistricting Commission mark a key step toward unraveling a decade-old deal struck by state legislative leaders to protect incumbents of both parties.
The maps represent the first time in state history that an independent citizens commission has drawn districts, but the drafts will be the subject of extensive public hearings, and changes are likely before final action in August.
"I think that, as a result of the commission and the community input that within the next few election cycles, we're going to see a spike in citizen participation and interest in California politics," Commissioner Gabino Aguirre said.
Not everyone was applauding, however.
The Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund said the maps do not provide a fair opportunity to increase the number of legislative and congressional seats held by members of the state's fastest-growing minority.
Steven Ochoa, MALDEF's national redistricting coordinator, said more analysis is needed to determine whether the commissioners' plan would illegally dilute the political power of Latinos. "I think this plan could put them at risk, though," he said.
Eugene Lee, of the Asian Pacific American Legal Center, characterized the new maps as a mixed bag.
State Sen. Curren Price, an Inglewood Democrat who chairs the Legislative Black Caucus, gave the maps a thumbs-up, saying they "maintained the integrity of the districts currently represented by African Americans in the state Legislature."
Analysis by The Bee and by Redistricting Partners, a political research firm, show the following changes targeted by the maps for the Legislature's 80 Assembly and 40 Senate districts:
• Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg and Democratic colleague Lois Wolk would be drawn into the same Sacramento-area Senate district, though Steinberg currently is serving his final term.
• Eleven new Assembly districts would contain the residences of two or more incumbents apiece, including a Los Angeles district with Assembly Speaker John A. Pérez and fellow Democrat Holly Mitchell – as well as colleagues Mike Davis and Gil Cedillo, both of whom will be termed out next year.
• San Francisco's two state Senate districts would shrink to one, providing less political clout for one of the state's most liberal enclaves.
• In the Sacramento area, GOP Assemblymen Dan Logue of Marysville and Jim Nielsen of Gerber would live in the same district, although Logue said he owns a home in a neighboring community and could easily seek election there.
Dickinson and Yamada said it is too soon to speculate on whether they might butt heads next year – and Pan, through a spokesman, declined comment altogether.
The maps potentially could lead to about half of the 80-member Assembly consisting of freshmen after next year's election, depending upon how many incumbents opt to seek Senate, congressional or other seats based on redrawn districts.
The statistical oddity could occur because nearly two dozen Assembly members are forced out every two years by term limits, and the new maps would create 16 vacant districts and numerous members sharing seats, said Paul Mitchell of Redistricting Partners.
No matter how lines are drawn, however, Democrats are virtually certain to continue dominating the Legislature and the congressional delegation because the party outnumbers Republicans by 2.2 million voters statewide.
Democrats currently hold 25 of 40 seats in the Senate, and 52 of 80 in the Assembly.
Database research by Bee staff writer Phillip Reese shows that the new maps would raise the number of swing districts in the Assembly from two to five, and in the Senate from one to two.
In the Assembly, 51 seats would be considered safe or leaning for Democrats and 24 safe or leaning for Republicans, with five swing districts. In the Senate, the numbers would be 27, 11 and two, respectively.
Reese's formula for determining safe and swing districts uses current voter registration figures and the outcome of the Jerry Brown-Meg Whitman gubernatorial race last November. Districts that have a registration advantage for one party but chose a gubernatorial candidate of another party are considered swing.
The formula does not consider incumbency and other factors that could alter the number of swing districts, however.
Mitchell, a Democratic political consultant, cautioned against drawing firm conclusions.
"Using that tool, it appears as though there might be a slight increase," he said. "But when you dig deeper and look at where the candidates are and where the incumbents are, I think it's clear that this plan does not create a new environment with a lot of competitive districts."
Political analyst Tony Quinn, co-editor of California Target Book, a publication that handicaps political races, reached a different conclusion – estimating that nearly a dozen Assembly seats would be competitive under the new maps.
"I don't think it ever was our intention, first and foremost, to push for more competitive districts," said Kathay Feng of California Common Cause, which backed a ballot measure to create the commission. "If that turns out to be the result because incumbents no longer are embedded in super-safe districts, then that's the result."
Voters stripped legislators of the right to draw political districts by passing Proposition 11 in 2008, partly in response to gerrymandered districts that led to none of the 120 legislative seats changing party hands in the 2004 and 2006 elections.
AT A GLANCE
Here are some highlights of the draft district maps for the Sacramento region released by the California Citizens Redistricting Commission.
Assembly:
• The residences of three Democratic Assembly members – Roger Dickinson and Richard Pan of Sacramento and Mariko Yamada of Davis – are in the same district.
• Yamada could move her home a short distance south and be in another district in which no Assembly incumbent resides.
• The commission drew a heavily Democratic district covering Elk Grove and south Sacramento in which no current Assembly member resides.
• Republican Assemblywoman Beth Gaines of Roseville would remain in a heavily Republican district.
• GOP Assemblymen Dan Logue of Marysville and Jim Nielsen of Gerber would reside in the same proposed district.
• Democratic Assemblywoman Alyson Huber of El Dorado Hills would remain in a district divided between Republicans and Democrats.
Senate:
• Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg of Sacramento and Sen. Lois Wolk of Davis would find themselves residing in the same Sacramento-Davis Senate district. But the two Democrats would never have to battle each other for the seat, because Steinberg is termed out in 2014.
• Wolk, due to seek her final four-year term in 2012, may have to sit out two years if the district survives as drawn and receives an even number.
• GOP Sen. Ted Gaines of Roseville would reside in a Republican-leaning district that covers much of eastern Sacramento County, Roseville and El Dorado Hills.
• GOP Sen. Doug LaMalfa of Oroville would stay in a safe Republican district.
• The proposed maps create a new solidly Republican "Foothills" district covering eastern, mostly rural El Dorado and Placer counties and stretching from Truckee to north of Fresno.
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