Release of new maps creates political 'tsunami'By Lisa Vorderbrueggen and Tracey Kaplan
San Jose Mercury News, Bay Area News Group
Posted: 06/10/2011 04:30:09 PM PDT
California's grand experiment with "citizen redistricting" produced sweeping angst across the state's political landscape Friday as the first round of congressional and legislative maps hit the streets.
Some incumbents called their new proposed districts "baffling." Latino leaders called the maps a disaster. But political reformers characterized them as a vast improvement from the old, party-driven system.
Interestingly, political experts said, the maps could be a boost to Democrats in what is already one of the bluest states in the country.
The new districts were drawn for the first time without regard to incumbents' home addresses or party affiliation. The results are districts with fewer odd-looking arms and fingers, along with a plethora of incumbents who no longer live in their districts.
Although there are certain to be changes before the final maps are adopted in August, everyone agrees the political shift will be huge.
"It's an earthquake with a tsunami," said Doug Johnson, a redistricting scholar with the Rose Institute at Claremont McKenna College.
Displaced legislators may be forced to move to adjacent districts containing the bulk, or at least the core, of their previous constituencies. Or they can simply choose to get out of legislative politics.
State lawmakers must live in the districts they represent, while congressional representatives are not required to.
First-term Assemblywoman Nora Campos, D-San Jose, who now represents the 23rd Assembly District, no longer would have a San Jose-centric district in which to seek re-election. A portion of her East San Jose district was placed in a district now represented by Assemblyman Luis Alejo, D-Salinas.
Other politicians could find themselves in far less safe districts. Two GOP members of Congress, David Dreier and Gary Miller in Southern California, have probably lost their chances of winning re-election.
The party balance in the state Legislature is most likely a political wash based on preliminary results, redistricting analysts say. In Congress, however, the GOP could lose up to eight of its 19 California seats, according to several political experts.
Democrats could pick up "at least four, maybe eight, seats," Democratic political consultant Jim Ross said. "That reflects the demographics of California."
California GOP Chairman Tom Del Beccaro of Lafayette, not surprisingly, was less enthusiastic.
"I'm not sure that's exactly what California needs," Del Beccaro said of the possible Democratic gains. "But we're going to finish crunching the numbers this weekend, and then we'll see how much we have to massage -- or push."
Tony Quinn, a veteran redistricting expert and former GOP political consultant, expects a far smaller hit on Republicans than some experts do, and commended the commission for producing a "pretty balanced set of maps."
"What seems to have been done throughout the state is that Democrats lose a little bit of their safe districts in the Bay Area while Republicans gain a little in their strong areas in the Central Valley," Quinn said.
Under the draft plan, the nine-county Bay Area would most likely lose part of one state Senate seat with the consolidation of two San Francisco seats now held by Democrats Leland Yee and Mark Leno.
The region would probably retain its Assembly seats and the 12-member congressional delegation, but its power may ultimately be diluted as the boundaries of its outermost districts push deeper into the faster-growing Central Valley.
Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Pleasanton, whose 11th District sprawls over the Altamont Pass into San Joaquin County, was drawn out of his territory and into that of neighboring Rep. Pete Stark, D-Fremont.
The open question is whether McNerney would run for Stark's 13th District seat or try for the newly constituted district next door. Stark has hinted that he might retire.
Residents in Stark's district have another worry: The draft plan moves most of Fremont and all of Newark into a predominantly Santa Clara County district that includes Milpitas and eastern San Jose. Commissioners, however, indicated during discussion Friday that they will take a second look.
In other Bay Area congressional moves, Reps. Lynn Woolsey, D-Santa Rosa, and Mike Thompson, D-St. Helena, could see large swaths of their districts swapped.
Woolsey blasted the commission Friday, calling it a "baffling" move.
Latino groups, meanwhile, suggested they were already considering legal action.
Even though Latinos drove the vast majority of California's population growth in the past decade, two leading civil rights groups said, the maps fail to reflect their growing influence -- making it unlikely more Latinos will be elected to the Legislature and Congress.
"I'm seeing the status quo," said Steven Ochoa, national redistricting coordinator for the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund. "This is disappointing and frustrating because we went from one extreme in the redistricting process to another, but still have not increased the voice of the second largest group in the state."
Latinos now make up 38 percent of the state's population and about 20 percent of voters.
Currently, seven of California's 53 congressional seats, or 13 percent, are held by Latinos; 15 of the 80, or about 19 percent, are in the state Assembly.
On the other hand, Latinos could benefit from the Democratic Party's overall gains in Congress on issues like immigration.
Asian-Americans fared better under the initial plan, gaining a likely seat in the Assembly and in Congress from the San Gabriel Valley. But the Asian alliance that lobbied the commission agreed Friday with MALDEF that the draft falls short of satisfying the goals of the Voting Rights Act when it comes to Latinos.
"The huge question is, 'Did the commission go far enough to make sure Latinos have as equal an opportunity to elect Latinos as they do non-Hispanic whites?' " said Eugene Lee, voting rights program director for the
Asian Pacific American Legal Center. "Civil rights groups think more Latino districts can be drawn."
MALDEF opposed the 2008 and 2010 ballot propositions that took redistricting out of the hands of politicians and gave it to the citizens' commission of five Republicans, five Democrats and four independents. But the group submitted a detailed plan to the panel.
Ochoa and Lee said the commission gave more weight to drawing geographically compact districts, ignoring the requirement to make compliance with the Voting Act Rights its second priority after evening up the population counts.
California is one of a half-dozen states -- which include Hawaii, Washington and Arizona -- with an independent or bipartisan redistricting commission, although it is by far the largest endeavor of its kind.
Independent redistricting advocates such as Bob Stern, president of the Center for Governmental Studies, are pleased with the commission's work, citing its vast number of meetings and voluminous downloadable documents and maps.
He and other proponents sought to end the Legislature's practice of drawing maps that protected incumbents and the balance of party power.
In 2001, the California Legislature unveiled on a Friday draft maps written largely in secret and adopted them the following Monday, Stern said.
And in the years since then, only one congressional and legislative office changed party hands.
The intent of independent redistricting is "to have fair districts that reflect California, whatever the outcome," Stern said. "The process this time has exceeded my expectations in terms of how serious the commissioners are taking it and how much transparency it has. We'll have to wait and see how it comes out, of course."
June 13-30 -- Public hearings will be held in 11 locations throughout the state, where the commissioners will take testimony on the draft maps. Bay Area hearings will be held on June 25 at San Jose City Hall, 200 E. Santa Clara St., from 2-5 p.m., and on June 27 at Fort Mason Center's Cowell Theater in San Francisco from 6-9 p.m. (For a full schedule, visit http://www.wedrawthelines.org/.)
July 7 -- Release second set of draft maps
July -- Take more public comment
Aug. 1 -- Release final maps
Aug. 15 -- Deadline to adopt final maps
online redistricting resources
California Citizens Redistricting Commission: Find the draft maps and a host of other documents at http://www.wedrawthelines.org/
Loyola Law School’s All About Redistricting: Check out redistricting across America and examine the legal issues at http://redistricting.lls.edu/
Rose Institute at Claremont College: Scholars have produced excellent online maps with clickable layers of maps submitted to the commission at www.redistrictinginamerica.org/draftplans/
UC-Berkeley Statewide Database: Download map and data files used for redistricting purposes at http://swdb.berkeley.edu/
Redistricting Partners: This private, Democratic redistricting consulting firm is posting at no charge a plethora of high-quality maps and political analysis of the new districts at http://redistrictingpartners.com/.
No comments:
Post a Comment