Brown will look to build on tax measures' success
Wyatt Buchanan, Chronicle Sacramento Bureau
San Francisco Chronicle November 14, 2011 04:00 AM
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Sacramento -- - Last week, counties, cities and school districts across the state won strong support from voters for new and increased taxes, and their success could be a model for Gov. Jerry Brown as he plans to ask California voters to increase taxes next November.
Voters approved 40 of 53 measures to increase, extend or create new taxes, fees and bond measures, said Michael Coleman, a fiscal policy consultant who tracked the measures for the League of California Cities.
"Despite tough times, if a local government runs an open and fair and honest budget process and maintains a level of trust and integrity with the community ... then these things will pass," Coleman said.
While the sample size is small, it was a higher percentage of successful tax measures compared with the average rate of passage in elections over the past decade, he said.
Of the measures that required a majority vote to raise taxes, 82 percent passed, compared with a 65 percent historical average. Of the measures that required a two-thirds majority for taxes, 69 percent passed, compared with a 46 percent historical average.
However, a statewide tax increase would be spent on any number of things across all of California.
That's one of the governor's principal challenges in persuading voters to tax themselves.
Brown has said he'll put some measure before voters, although he hasn't announced details.
A measure will likely include a permanent funding source for his realignment plan, which shifted some state responsibilities to localities, including housing of some state prisoners in local jails.
Such a campaign could allow the governor to ask for a statewide tax that would fund local programs. This year, the state is spending $6.3 billion for the realignment plan.
Steve Glazer, one of Brown's chief political advisers who ran his gubernatorial campaign last year, said the success of local tax measures last week was somewhat encouraging - but it could also be "a data point" that may not mean much.
"In every tax election you have to pass three tests: One, is it a compelling need? Two, is it affordable? Three, can I trust the money will be spent as promised?" Glazer said. He, too, said convincing voters of those things is easier locally than statewide, but a statewide strategy can work if the public trusts the messenger will do what is promised.
That person, Glazer said, is Brown.
Still, opponents of statewide tax increases say voters have repeatedly been asked whether to send more money to Sacramento and have rejected those attempts.
Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, said he thinks the governor will actually try to get the Legislature to pass a tax increase rather than go to voters. But if it does go on the ballot, Coupal said the local focus would be the best strategy for proponents.
"If I were running the 'yes' campaign for a tax at the state level, I would try to wrap it around local public safety, fire and local schools, knowing full well that anything perceived as a statewide tax increase is going to have rough sledding," he said.
Voters approved 40 of 53 measures to increase, extend or create new taxes, fees and bond measures, said Michael Coleman, a fiscal policy consultant who tracked the measures for the League of California Cities.
"Despite tough times, if a local government runs an open and fair and honest budget process and maintains a level of trust and integrity with the community ... then these things will pass," Coleman said.
While the sample size is small, it was a higher percentage of successful tax measures compared with the average rate of passage in elections over the past decade, he said.
Of the measures that required a majority vote to raise taxes, 82 percent passed, compared with a 65 percent historical average. Of the measures that required a two-thirds majority for taxes, 69 percent passed, compared with a 46 percent historical average.
Local vs. state
Experts agreed that it can be much easier to persuade voters to raise local taxes because the money flows to their neighborhoods and they often know the elected officials who spend it.However, a statewide tax increase would be spent on any number of things across all of California.
That's one of the governor's principal challenges in persuading voters to tax themselves.
Brown has said he'll put some measure before voters, although he hasn't announced details.
A measure will likely include a permanent funding source for his realignment plan, which shifted some state responsibilities to localities, including housing of some state prisoners in local jails.
Such a campaign could allow the governor to ask for a statewide tax that would fund local programs. This year, the state is spending $6.3 billion for the realignment plan.
Steve Glazer, one of Brown's chief political advisers who ran his gubernatorial campaign last year, said the success of local tax measures last week was somewhat encouraging - but it could also be "a data point" that may not mean much.
Trust in messenger
He said he has run campaigns for more than 100 tax measures in 25 states and that each election comes down to the same things."In every tax election you have to pass three tests: One, is it a compelling need? Two, is it affordable? Three, can I trust the money will be spent as promised?" Glazer said. He, too, said convincing voters of those things is easier locally than statewide, but a statewide strategy can work if the public trusts the messenger will do what is promised.
That person, Glazer said, is Brown.
Still, opponents of statewide tax increases say voters have repeatedly been asked whether to send more money to Sacramento and have rejected those attempts.
Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, said he thinks the governor will actually try to get the Legislature to pass a tax increase rather than go to voters. But if it does go on the ballot, Coupal said the local focus would be the best strategy for proponents.
"If I were running the 'yes' campaign for a tax at the state level, I would try to wrap it around local public safety, fire and local schools, knowing full well that anything perceived as a statewide tax increase is going to have rough sledding," he said.
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