SACRAMENTO -- Anticipating Gov. Jerry Brown's next move on the budget is as beguiling as parsing the mutterings of an oracle on a snowy mountain top.

Does he have any other surprises to spring on Democrats?

Is he any closer to persuading a handful of Republicans to vote for tax extensions?

The developments over the past week were stunning: Brown's veto, the first in modern California history; then Controller John Chiang's unprecedented decision to not pay legislators, declaring that the budget the Democratic-controlled Legislature approved was not balanced.

Here are some other questions that beg to be answered as the Capitol tries to sort out what just hit it:

Q What effect will Chiang's decision to forfeit pay to legislators have on budget negotiations?

A Legislators say they would never vote out of personal interest over principle, but for those who need to make payments on apartments in Sacramento as well as on their district homes, the financial crunch could be an effective motivator to get something done

One could argue that legislators already voted for their financial interests by passing what many said was a get-out-of-town budget to meet the constitutional deadline, so the evidence of self-interested votes is already there.

Q Despite all the gnashing of the teeth over Chiang exceeding his authority in judging whether the budget passed muster, will anyone have the guts to challenge his ruling?


A Someone, undoubtedly, will challenge the ruling. But it's at the risk of further disenchanting the public, which voted to punish lawmakers if they didn't pass a budget on time. It would be in the Legislature's best interest if they took their lumps and arrived quickly at a balanced budget.

Q What if the Legislature approves a budget, Brown signs it, but Chiang rules it is not in balance?

A Then, you might have a real constitutional crisis. But Chiang might as well open up his exploratory committee for the governorship.

Q What's Brown's next move?

A First he's got to find a way to calm the emotions of angry Democrats, who felt betrayed by Brown's veto and Chiang's decision to withhold their pay. Brown started the healing process Tuesday by meeting with Democratic caucuses from both houses.

Wednesday, his staff restarted discussions with Democratic legislative staffs on various budget alternatives, including one that would bypass Republicans with another straight majority vote.

Q But wouldn't that require an all-cuts budget that Democrats are reluctant to do?

A Nobody said this was easy. Brown has to thread the needle so that he avoids any hint of gimmickry while minimizing the damage of finding an additional $9.6 billion to cut (on top of nearly $12 billion already).

Q Is a vote on tax extensions still in the picture?

A It's not clear. Brown still wants to have a vote in September, but the only way he'll get it is if Republicans support a bridge tax to keep revenues coming in at the same rate until a September election, a highly doubtful prospect. His own Democratic and labor allies are increasingly nervous about holding an election in an off-year, where a small turnout would favor anti-tax voters.

They're more likely to support a tax extension vote to coincide with the presidential election in November 2012, when a larger Democratic turnout is expected. Labor's highest priority, however, is to win enough legislative elections to gain a two-thirds majority in both houses. That said, if the governor indeed gets a September election, it is unlikely that labor and other potential financial supporters would sit it out.

Q Brown did not meet with Democrats on Wednesday and is scheduled to attend a conference in San Francisco on Thursday. Is he frittering away precious time as the end of the fiscal year, June 30, approaches?

A You would think he'd be hammering out a new budget with legislators and staying close to home to keep the pressure on them. But he and his aides say he's on his cellphone constantly with individual legislators of both parties, and he's got the Department of Finance working overtime on it. Still, many have wondered why Brown doesn't just lock legislators up in a room until they come to an agreement.

Q What would a 2011-12 budget look like if a tax vote is held off until November 2012?

A Brown would have to persuade Democratic legislators to go along with an austerity budget -- one with more massive cuts to schools, universities and public safety.